Negotiation in war
- What role do negotiations play in the midst of interstate wars? Lacking detailed intra-war data, extant scholarship has largely treated negotiations as an activity that mirrors hostilities on the battlefield. This view of negotiations as a reflection of war is not well-supported by the historical record, particularly for contemporary conflicts. To address these gaps, I gather new daily level data on 1,700 battles and 10,000 diplomatic acts during all interstate wars since 1816. These new resources reveal new insights on the calculated and intertwined relationship between fighting and bargaining. I find that pre-1945 wars are so costly in signaling weakness that tend to be very infrequent but quickly end wars. But after 1945, diplomatic bargaining becomes much more common, irregular, and less predictive of war termination. I contend that international actors and beleaguered war targets use these negotiations to moderate the battlefield, regroup militarily, and mitigate an initiator's first-mover advantage. Negotiations are used as an instrument of war. In addition, a computational analysis of negotiation transcripts and United Nations military reports from the Korean War demonstrates that the costs of war should not be viewed as exogenous information, but rather choices that are endogenous to the stakes of the conflict. These original data and analyses establish a new and dynamic intra-war framework that enables a more policy-relevant study of conflict management, and speaks to the utility of viewing diplomacy as an equal partner to---not a mere consequence of---fighting in understanding war.
|Type of resource
|electronic; electronic resource; remote
|1 online resource.
|Stanford University, Department of Political Science.
|Fearon, James D
|Fearon, James D
|Statement of responsibility
|Submitted to the Department of Political Science.
|Thesis (Ph.D.)--Stanford University, 2017.
- © 2017 by Eric Aram Min
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC).
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