Towards seismic resilience : a comprehensive approach to modeling earthquake consequences from regional hazard to household well-being
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- Understanding disaster risk is an integral aspect of disaster risk management, and it is essential for efficient risk reduction investments. Regional disaster risk assessment frameworks, including seismic risk analysis, are commonly used to quantify disaster risk and inform risk reduction strategies. However, few of the frameworks are able to quantify the full extent of disaster consequences especially as related to household recovery and the disproportionate effect on the socioeconomically vulnerable population. This dissertation proposes a set of new computational methods along various steps of the seismic risk assessment process and lays out the overall methodology for quantifying disaster impacts on the society considering the entire recovery process. This is achieved by integrating and leveraging analytical tools from other fields, namely, geostatistics, real estate investment, macroeconomics, and welfare economics. The dissertation first proposes a framework for simulating spatially distributed ground motions at multiple intensity measures. The framework allows modelers to rapidly simulate multiple realizations of earthquake ground motion intensity, which are required for regional risk assessments. Furthermore, the research investigates post-earthquake decisions on damaged commercial buildings considering the influence of real estate market conditions. An investment decision model for individual buildings that unifies seismic performance estimation and real estate investment analysis is proposed and applied to four commercial buildings in the Los Angeles area. Results suggest that the state of the real estate market has a significant influence on decisions and recovery trajectories of commercial buildings. Finally, this dissertation integrates regional probabilistic seismic risk analysis, which quantifies asset losses, with an economic recovery model to estimate the overall economic impact of a large earthquake on the San Francisco Bay Area. In addition to quantifying changes in economic output, this approach gives insight into changes in income and employment across different economic sectors. The results of this analysis are combined with information on income, employment sector, housing values, savings, mortgage, rent, and insurance of households across the Bay Area, to calculate consumption changes throughout the recovery. Furthermore, well-being losses (i.e., changes in the utility of consumption over the recovery period) are calculated and analyzed for different socioeconomic groups. Well-being losses, unlike asset losses which use absolute monetary values, are able to reflect the differential impact that a loss in consumption of $1 has on a low income versus a high income household. The analysis reveals that poorer households suffer only 19% of the overall physical asset losses, but experience 41% of the well-being losses. Well-being losses also extend over a larger region than that of severe asset losses, requiring design of policies to help people recover, in addition to reducing asset losses. We evaluate several pre- and post-disaster risk reduction strategies in terms of their effect on both asset and well-being losses and examine their efficacy across different socioeconomic groups. The tools developed in this dissertation are meant to be used by researchers, practitioners, and government agencies to understand the extent of the disaster risk. They can help policymakers identify vulnerable groups within their community who might require pre- and post-disaster assistance, and design efficient investment strategies for disaster resilience considering socioeconomic characteristics and vulnerabilities of the population at risk.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Form | electronic resource; remote; computer; online resource |
| Extent | 1 online resource. |
| Place | California |
| Place | [Stanford, California] |
| Publisher | [Stanford University] |
| Copyright date | 2019; ©2019 |
| Publication date | 2019; 2019 |
| Issuance | monographic |
| Language | English |
Creators/Contributors
| Author | Markhvida, Maryia | |
|---|---|---|
| Degree supervisor | Baker, Jack W | |
| Thesis advisor | Baker, Jack W | |
| Thesis advisor | Deierlein, Gregory G. (Gregory Gerard), 1959- | |
| Thesis advisor | Kiremidjian, Anne S. (Anne Setian) | |
| Degree committee member | Deierlein, Gregory G. (Gregory Gerard), 1959- | |
| Degree committee member | Kiremidjian, Anne S. (Anne Setian) | |
| Associated with | Stanford University, Civil & Environmental Engineering Department. |
Subjects
| Genre | Theses |
|---|---|
| Genre | Text |
Bibliographic information
| Statement of responsibility | Maryia Markhvida. |
|---|---|
| Note | Submitted to the Civil & Environmental Engineering Department. |
| Thesis | Thesis Ph.D. Stanford University 2019. |
| Location | electronic resource |
Access conditions
- Copyright
- © 2019 by Maryia Markhvida
- License
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC).
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