Out of Many, Many: Political Polarization and Subnational Democratic Degradation in the Contemporary United States

The United States has not avoided the global democratic recession of the Twenty-First Century. Democratic degradation has taken hold at the federal level, but also, more subtly at the subnational level, where state governments have engaged in increasingly blatant anti-democratic action, cheered on by partisans in other states and at the national level. Gerrymandering, voting restrictions, and corrupt and legally questionable partisan action have become more common, accompanied by an atmosphere of political polarization and deep fear at the implications of opposition victory.
This thesis approaches the interplay between subnational democratic degradation in the United States and partisan polarization, analyzing the degree to which levels of political polarization in any given state predict the quality of democracy, and any shifts thereof, in that state. The primary hypothesis was that increased levels of polarization would correlate with lower democratic quality, as parties in government, fearing their opposition taking power, would impose anti-democratic measures to maintain their government.
The findings show little correlation between polarization and the quality of democracy. Political polarization increased in a largely linear fashion during the 2000 to 2018 period, while quality of democracy decreased slightly in a largely linear fashion over the same period in the vast majority of states. The exceptions were states where the party dominant in state government changed during the 2000 to 2018 period, with states that transitioned from Democratic- to Republican-controlled seeing significant democratic degradation, while states that transitioned from Republican- to Democratic-controlled saw significant improvement in quality of democracy. Analysis of the specific case of democratic degradation in Wisconsin suggests Republican party influence prompts such degradation. This raises further questions on the effects of partisan control of the post-Census redistricting process on state democracy, partisan transition and democracy more broadly, and the actual motivations behind state-level anti-democratic behavior.