"Navigating Cascading Planetary Boundaries: A Framework to Secure the Future"

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Abstract/Contents

Abstract: This paper examines the potential cascading effects into society of transgressed Planetary Boundaries. This paper provides a literature review of the Planetary Boundaries (climate change, novel entities, stratospheric ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosol loading, ocean acidification, biogeochemical flows, freshwater use, land-system change, and biosphere integrity), including an analysis of humanity’s current position within each of the Earth systems. Using this, the potential for cascades across Planetary Boundaries, and from transgressed Planetary Boundaries into society is investigated. Extensive cascades exist, and agriculture and food security found to be at risk. It is investigated how the cascades through society could lead to increased Global Catastrophic Risk, and found that transgressed Planetary Boundaries have the potential to exacerbate known Global Catastrophic Risk (e.g. Weapons of Mass Destruction), and may lead to new and unforeseen Global Catastrophic Risks (e.g. as a result of the development of new climate change mitigating technology). From these findings, a framework is generated to identify and understand the cascades and associated Global Catastrophic Risks that may stem from crossed Planetary Boundaries, and also how to mitigate them. The framework emphasises the need for involvement from across industry, governments, and research institutions.

Author	Cernev, Tom

DOI	https://doi.org/10.25740/ww663gw1454
Location	https://purl.stanford.edu/ww663gw1454

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License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-ND).

Preferred citation: Cernev, T. (2023). "Navigating Cascading Planetary Boundaries: A Framework to Secure the Future" in Intersections, Reinforcements, Cascades: Proceedings of the 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference. The Stanford Existential Risks Initiative. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at https://purl.stanford.edu/ww663gw1454. https://doi.org/10.25740/ww663gw1454.

Intersections, Reinforcements, Cascades: The Proceedings of the 3rd Annual Stanford Existential Risks Conference

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