Methodologies for Evaluating the Socio-Economic Consequences of Large Earthquakes

This report describes the development of a comprehensive regiona1 damage and loss estimation methodology that can be used for evaJuating the socio-economic impacts of large earthquake and for identifying high risk facilities utilizing advanced computational tools. The methodology was developed during a three year project carried out by a team of researchers assembled by the nonprofit organization CaJifornia Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering (CUREe). The team, comprised of members from Stanford University, University of California at Los Angeles, and University of Ca1ifornia at Berkeley, had expertise in earthquake hazard and risk evaluation, geological and geotechnica1 modeling, and socio-economic consequence anaJysis.

During the project, new models were developed for some of the methodology components, such as the identification of criticaJ facilities and the transportation network anaJysis. For other components, such as the estimation of building and lifeline component damage, existing models from the ATC-13 and NIBS studies were adopted and modified for use within a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The methodology was illustrated through a case study for the city of Palo Alto, California. Damage and loss estimates were made for severaJ earthquake scenarios and a probabilistic hazard analysis. Critical buildings were identified and the water distribution system for the city was analyzed in terms of its post-earthquake service capacity. An analysis of hospital facilities in Palo Alto was made to illustrate the use of benefit-cost analysis for seismic rehabilitation decisions.