"Governing and Anticipating Anthropogenic Existential Risks: Envisioning Some New Approaches"

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Abstract/Contents

Abstract: In my role as a futurist, I delve into the paradigms that pertain to our reality characterized by escalating complexity, the acceleration of social time, and the proliferation and cascading of existential risks. By tracing the origins of the "risk society" concept and elucidating the fundamental attributes of existential risks and their multifaceted nature, I emphasize their inherent distinctions. The contemporary societal landscape, characterized by the "thickening" and compression of the present, reaches a threshold where reflexivity becomes arduous. This necessitates novel approaches and methodologies to address existential risks. The study primarily focuses on anthropogenic existential risks, acknowledging the interplay of subjective and objective factors contributing to their emergence. Subjectively, these risks are influenced by human bounded rationality, knowledge gaps leading to irrationality (cognitive deficits, heuristics, and biases), the employment or neglect of critical and deliberate thinking, and the challenge of comprehending complex systems amidst our cognitive limitations. The article also introduces a novel forecasting methodology that I have developed utilizing the resource of counterfactual analysis. Counterfactuals effectively capture the intricate and fluid essence of our contemporary reality, as elucidated through some illustrative case studies.

Author	Todorova, Mariana

Subject	risk societies
Subject	anthropogenic existential risks
Subject	subjective factors
Subject	counterfactuals
Genre	Text
Genre	Article

DOI	https://doi.org/10.25740/vp972pt5387
Location	https://purl.stanford.edu/vp972pt5387

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License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-ND).

Preferred citation: Todorova, M. (2023). "Governing and Anticipating Anthropogenic Existential Risks: Envisioning Some New Approaches" in Intersections, Reinforcements, Cascades: Proceedings of the 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference. The Stanford Existential Risks Initiative. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at https://purl.stanford.edu/vp972pt5387. https://doi.org/10.25740/vp972pt5387.

Intersections, Reinforcements, Cascades: The Proceedings of the 3rd Annual Stanford Existential Risks Conference

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