Reconsidering the Roots of Crude Coercion: a Policymaking Analysis of 'the Oil Weapon'

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Abstract/Contents

Abstract: In 1973-1974, several Arab oil-producing countries embargoed oil shipments to the United States while cutting oil production, in order to pressure the US to diminish its support of Israel. Despite expectations at the time, such large-scale use of the "oil weapon"; has not become a commonplace policy. This thesis explores potential explanations for these changing patterns of use of "the oil weapon", drawing on policymaking, neo-realist, and offensive realist frameworks, then employing various case studies to evaluate the explanatory power of such frameworks. This thesis finds that whereas a punctuated equilibrium model best explains the buildup to "the oil weapon" in 1973-1974, Kingdon's multiple policy streams model best explains the deployment patterns for this policy from 1973‐2003. In case studies of Venezuela, Iran, and Russia’s “oil weapon” use and rhetoric during the 2003‐2008 period of heightened oil prices, Kingdon’s model best explains Venezuela case, an offensive realist framework best explains Russia’s, and a hybrid of the two models, Iran’s. The conclusion addresses the current EU‐Iran oil embargo to gauge how “the oil weapon” might develop in the future. This thesis’ findings will help inform oil‐importing countries’ calibrations of their policies for addressing oil‐producing countries’ potentially hostile export policies.

Type of resource	text
Date created	May 21, 2012

Author	Ramel, Clay
Advisor	Blacker, Coit D.

Subject	CISAC
Subject	Center for International Security and Cooperation
Subject	Stanford University
Subject	OPEC
Subject	Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
Subject	oil embargo
Subject	international relations
Subject	foreign policy
Genre	Thesis

Location	https://purl.stanford.edu/vh549zx7252

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License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC).

Preferred Citation: Ramel, Clay. (2012). Reconsidering the Roots of Crude Coercion: a Policymaking Analysis 'the Oil Weapon'. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at: http://purl.stanford.edu/vh549zx7252

Stanford University, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Interschool Honors Program in International Security Studies, Theses

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