Trends in heavy drinking behaviors and hepatitis C virus infection in China : a mathematical modeling study
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- Population health has drastically changed over time, especially in countries like China where rapid economic and social growth has occurred in the past decades. Economic development in China was paralleled with increase alcohol consumption and an increasing burden of chronic diseases. Empirical studies provide observations on the trends and patterns in health risk behaviors and diseases. Mathematical modelling can further describe dynamics underlying the observed epidemiology and explore evolving disease epidemiology in the population with or without potential interventions. In this dissertation, I apply mathematical models to better understand what drove past trends in high-risk drinking behaviors, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections, and their interactions among Chinese men in order to project future burden of diseases and potential policy effects. The first chapter of this dissertation shows that inclusion of cohort trends when modeling disease results in different model outcomes and projections than when cohort trend are not included. In Chapter 2, I identify age patterns and cohort trends in high-risk drinking behaviors among Chinese men by applying a model calibration technique to longitudinal data. The constructed model predicts a declining trend in future prevalence of heavy drinking and estimates significant future health benefits of mitigating heavy drinking behaviors among the subpopulation at high risk of heavy drinking. I incorporate the model of heavy drinking behavior into Chapter 3 where I develop a natural history model of HCV infection among Chinese men. By combining sparse data on HCV and HCV-related liver diseases in China, the calibrated model identifies the variation in HCV infection rates by birth cohorts whose risk of infection has changed in response to prior regulations on HCV transmission in China
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Form | electronic resource; remote; computer; online resource |
| Extent | 1 online resource |
| Place | California |
| Place | [Stanford, California] |
| Publisher | [Stanford University] |
| Copyright date | 2020; ©2020 |
| Publication date | 2020; 2020 |
| Issuance | monographic |
| Language | English |
Creators/Contributors
| Author | Lee, Kyu Eun |
|---|---|
| Degree supervisor | Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D |
| Thesis advisor | Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D |
| Thesis advisor | Brandeau, Margaret L |
| Thesis advisor | Salomon, Joshua A |
| Degree committee member | Brandeau, Margaret L |
| Degree committee member | Salomon, Joshua A |
| Associated with | Stanford University, Department of Medicine. |
Subjects
| Genre | Theses |
|---|---|
| Genre | Text |
Bibliographic information
| Statement of responsibility | Kyu Eun Lee |
|---|---|
| Note | Submitted to the Department of Medicine |
| Thesis | Thesis Ph.D. Stanford University 2020 |
| Location | electronic resource |
Access conditions
- Copyright
- © 2020 by Kyu Eun Lee
- License
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC).
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