Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Based on the judgments of experts representing a broad range of disciplines and analytical approaches, we assess current understanding. The focus is on the importance of climate as a driver of organized armed conflict within countries, changes in conflict risk across climate futures, and implications for conflict risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Across experts, best estimates are that 3–20% of conflict risk over the last century has been influenced by climate, and none of their individual ranges excludes a role of climate in 10% of conflict risk to date. However, other drivers are judged substantially more influential for conflict overall, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages are a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future conflict risk as additional linkages become relevant, although uncertainties also expand.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Date created | [ca. November 2018] |
Creators/Contributors
| Author | Mach, Katharine J. |
|---|---|
| Author | Kraan, Caroline M. |
| Author | Adger, W. Neil |
| Author | Buhaug, Halvard |
| Author | Burke, Marshall |
| Author | Fearon, James D. |
| Author | Field, Christopher B. |
| Author | Hendrix, Cullen S. |
| Author | Maystadt, Jean-Francois |
| Author | O'Loughlin, John |
| Author | Roessler, Philip |
| Author | Scheffran, Juergen |
| Author | Schultz, Kenneth A. |
| Author | Von Uexkull, Nina |
Subjects
| Subject | climate |
|---|---|
| Subject | conflict |
| Subject | expert elicitation |
| Subject | assessment |
| Subject | Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment |
| Genre | Article |
Bibliographic information
Access conditions
- Use and reproduction
- User agrees that, where applicable, content will not be used to identify or to otherwise infringe the privacy or confidentiality rights of individuals. Content distributed via the Stanford Digital Repository may be subject to additional license and use restrictions applied by the depositor.
Preferred citation
- Preferred Citation
- Mach, K.J., C.M. Kraan, W.N. Adger, H. Buhaug, M. Burke, J.D. Fearon, C.B. Field, C.S. Hendrix, J.-F. Maystadt, J. O'Loughlin, P. Roessler, J. Scheffran, K.A. Schultz & N. Von Uexkull (2018). Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at: https://purl.stanford.edu/sy632nx6578
Collection
Stanford Environment Assessment Facility
Contact information
- Contact
- mach@stanford.edu
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