Reframing US-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific: the role and agency of Southeast Asian nations

The prevailing geopolitical landscape painted in the media is often as follows: the US and China are caught in a Thucydides trap in which a rising power is challenging to eclipse the incumbent, and Southeast Asia is a key theatre where this will play out. Many are reminded of the Cold War, during which Southeast Asian countries were divided along their alignment strategies. Today, they face pressure from the US and China to pick a side in international politics and they are often portrayed as a prize to be won. They appear helpless and at risk of being the collateral damage of great power rivalry. Moreover, the narratives portrayed in Western and Chinese media and/or literature are divided – both sides see themselves as the force of good for the prosperity of the region and are critical when Southeast Asian countries work with the other.

However, there is also an alternative perspective that the US-China strategic competition could provide fertile ground for Southeast Asian countries to advance their own national interests. While navigating the US-China tension can be challenging, the big powers’ eagerness to engage and win them over gives them additional leverage and more options to obtain the necessary support and assistance for their own development. The trade war and the push for decoupling may also inadvertently present new opportunities for some Southeast Asian countries. The Southeast Asian nations have always acted according to what pragmatism dictates and they will no doubt try to make the best use of the situation.

Hence, this paper seeks to explore the ways in which Southeast Asian countries could shape the dynamics of the US-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region and the key drivers behind their foreign policy toward the two big powers. To this end, it delves deeper into three case study countries that lie on different points along the spectrum of US/China-leanings – namely Laos, Indonesia, and the Philippines – to illustrate the relevant factors at play. The paper can also help inform American and Chinese policymakers about the needs of Southeast Asia and the effectiveness of their current approaches. Most importantly, it hopes to reframe the conversation to focus more on the agency of the region and shed light on the Southeast Asian point of view that tends to be lacking in the current discourse.