Probabilistic Seismic Exposure and Structural Risk Evaluation

Predictions of structural behavior under earthquake loading are uncertain, and structural failures resulting in considerable damage and loss frequently occur because of these loadings and inadequate seismic structural resistance.

In view of the uncertainties associated with both earthquakes and structural behavior, probabilistic rather than deterministic approaches appear to be more appropriate in seismic structural design.

The basic objective of this report is to develop a methodology for earthquake-resistant structural design based on statistical decision theory concepts. As discussed later, appropriate quantification of the uncertainties described above and an optimization process to determine the most efficient alternative for earthquake-resistant structural design are necessary components of the methodology.