Assessing Red Lines in the US-China-Taiwan Trilateral Relationship
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- The idea of “red lines” has become a favorite catch-all term to discuss coercion, grey area tactics, and escalation. Particularly in the case of the US-China relationship over Taiwan, policymakers and scholars use red lines as a shorthand to conceptualize crisis thresholds, a point where ambiguity ends, and the stakes are highest. But there is limited consensus on the definition of red lines, and even less consensus on where red lines are between the US and China. This thesis creates a theoretical framework for understanding red lines and applies to it to the US-China-Taiwan case to explore how the US and China treat red lines in practice, and why some red lines fail where others succeed. Drawing on a set of case studies of Taiwan-centered red lines, I analyze how their integrity has evolved, contextualizing violations and enforcement through a typology. I assess red lines based on four main components: a situational threshold, demand, threat, and justification, and suggest that the strength of a red line is highly dependent on having all four components. Particularly in an era of grey area conflict between the US and China, understanding how to draw red lines most effectively, and which red lines are de jure versus de facto, is essential for preventing miscommunication and unwanted escalation.
Description
Type of resource | text |
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Date modified | December 5, 2022 |
Publication date | June 3, 2022; June 2, 2022 |
Creators/Contributors
Author | Kohatsu, Hannah |
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Thesis advisor | Mastro, Oriana |
Degree granting institution | Stanford University |
Department | Center for International Security and Cooperation |
Subjects
Subject | red lines |
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Subject | Deterrence (Strategy) |
Subject | grey zone |
Subject | China |
Subject | Taiwan |
Subject | International relations |
Genre | Text |
Genre | Thesis |
Bibliographic information
Access conditions
- Use and reproduction
- User agrees that, where applicable, content will not be used to identify or to otherwise infringe the privacy or confidentiality rights of individuals. Content distributed via the Stanford Digital Repository may be subject to additional license and use restrictions applied by the depositor.
- License
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY).
Preferred citation
- Preferred citation
- Kohatsu, H. (2022). Assessing Red Lines in the US-China-Taiwan Trilateral Relationship. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at https://purl.stanford.edu/qq958gt6387
Collection
Stanford University, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Interschool Honors Program in International Security Studies, Theses
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- Contact
- hkohatsu@stanford.edu
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