"Scenarios 2075: The Cascading Risks Study"

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Abstract/Contents

Abstract: Humanity faces a myriad of existential technology, geopolitical, and ecological risks. When studied separately, one misses the destructive systemic trajectories due to cascading risks. The Cascading Risk Study uses methods of triangulation between board game creation, literature review, scenario planning, quantitative growth indicators projected into 2075, modified Delphi survey, taxonomy development, focus groups and interviews, and case study research to inform the issue. This paper is focused on the five input scenarios created as well as initial findings from an online survey on global systemic risks. The results show that an expert sample (n=145) do not consider 2075 to be a time frame relevant for human extinction, but that they are strongly concerned already about 2225 and beyond. The survey confirms the relevance of the five disruption factors used for scenario building (tech, governance, business, social dynamics, environment), with heightened concern about technology, particularly biotech and AI, and especially the combination of the two. Respondents suggest deep dives in specific application areas of AI, bioengineering, and climate change. Both survey and literature review finds support for taking into consideration a wider array of factors, indicating that even mid-range risks may become systemic.

Author	Undheim, Trond Arne

DOI	https://doi.org/10.25740/qf684zr4532
Location	https://purl.stanford.edu/qf684zr4532

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License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-ND).

Preferred citation: Undheim, T. (2023). "Scenarios 2075: The Cascading Risks Study" in Intersections, Reinforcements, Cascades: Proceedings of the 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference. The Stanford Existential Risks Initiative. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at https://purl.stanford.edu/qf684zr4532. https://doi.org/10.25740/qf684zr4532.

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