Crisis decision analysis : how to save more lives?
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- A crisis creates a decision situation in which it is challenging to apply decision analysis as a normative decision-making approach. The existing literature on crisis decision making lacks discussions on three aspects developed in this dissertation: (1) how a crisis decision maker can prepare for crisis responding decisions; (2) how to determine the optimal timing of actions balancing the quality of information against the effectiveness of intervention; and (3) how to handle unexpected new observations. Chapters 3, 4, and 5 develop and characterize a set of tools for structuring, making, and updating strategic decisions when responding to a variety of crises. A "Crisis World Map" is a conceptual map customized for each individual crisis decision maker. Such a tool helps clarify the boundaries of what can be planned and what cannot before crises happen, and therefore helps prepare for crisis responding decisions. The second tool incorporates time into the decision analysis model and helps the decision maker describe time-varying values and probabilities. As a result, the decision maker can more effectively balance the trade-off between waiting for more information versus taking quick actions in moments of crisis. When unexpected new observations arise before the decision maker takes actions, the "Value of Further Modeling" helps him decide whether to introduce new uncertainties that potentially change the decision. Chapter 6 and Chapter 7 examine two historical case studies in detail. One case study is on the 1999 United Nations Peacekeeping mission planning for Sierra Leone and the other is on the 2011 Fukushima nuclear crisis. Although the two case studies discuss completely different types of crisis under different time scales with different sources of value, they both provide concrete validation of the proposed methodologies and generate many valuable practical insights for application.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Form | electronic; electronic resource; remote |
| Extent | 1 online resource. |
| Publication date | 2013 |
| Issuance | monographic |
| Language | English |
Creators/Contributors
| Associated with | Wang, Xi |
|---|---|
| Associated with | Stanford University, Department of Management Science and Engineering. |
| Primary advisor | Howard, Ronald A. (Ronald Arthur), 1934- |
| Thesis advisor | Howard, Ronald A. (Ronald Arthur), 1934- |
| Thesis advisor | Robinson, Burke Edward |
| Thesis advisor | Schultz, Kenneth A |
| Thesis advisor | Shachter, Ross D |
| Advisor | Robinson, Burke Edward |
| Advisor | Schultz, Kenneth A |
| Advisor | Shachter, Ross D |
Subjects
| Genre | Theses |
|---|
Bibliographic information
| Statement of responsibility | Xi Wang. |
|---|---|
| Note | Submitted to the Department of Management Science and Engineering. |
| Thesis | Thesis (Ph.D.)--Stanford University, 2013. |
| Location | electronic resource |
Access conditions
- Copyright
- © 2013 by Xi Wang
- License
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC).
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