Mathematical and decision analytic modeling of interventions to mitigate infectious diseases from endemic to pandemic
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- Infectious diseases are responsible for millions of deaths globally each year. Difficult decisions must be made about how to allocate resources efficiently to treat infection, prevent transmission, and save lives while also mitigating the negative impacts of an outbreak. Mathematical and decision analytic modeling help inform decision makers about the most effective and most cost-effective interventions to prepare for and respond to infectious disease outbreaks. In this dissertation, I present novel applications of a variety of model types to assess interventions for recent disease outbreaks. I develop cutting edge methodological improvements for decision making amid an outbreak and provide critical evidence on how model structure could impact predicted intervention effectiveness. Specifically, I assess the cost-effectiveness of plague control interventions for the 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar including expanded access to antibiotic treatment with doxycycline, mass distribution of doxycycline prophylaxis, and mass distribution of malathion -- alone and in combination. I focus on the trade-off between intervention timing and coverage levels as measured in terms of costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Subsequently, I provide a novel framework for rapid decision making and advancing methods for meta-modeling in the infectious disease context. I derive the simple decision rule using a compartmental model framework and net monetary benefit to assess cost-effectiveness and compare the performance of the simple decision rule to machine learning metamodels. During the COVID-19 pandemic, I estimated the impact of various mitigation strategies on COVID-19 transmission in a large U.S. urban jail. I develop a stochastic dynamic transmission model and use this model to estimate the effectiveness of three interventions undertaken by the jail -- depopulation, increased single celling, and asymptomatic testing -- in reducing the spread of COVID-19. Finally, I explicitly address how the choice of model can influence estimates of intervention effectiveness in the short and long term for an endemic disease. I consider four disease models with different permutations of socially connected network vs. unstructured contact (mass-action mixing) model and heterogeneous vs. homogeneous disease risk. I calibrate the models to the same long-term equilibrium disease prevalence and consider a simple intervention with varying levels of coverage and efficacy. For each type of model, I measure the rate of prevalence decline post-intervention, the long-term equilibrium prevalence, and the long-term effective reproduction ratio at equilibrium.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Form | electronic resource; remote; computer; online resource |
| Extent | 1 online resource. |
| Place | California |
| Place | [Stanford, California] |
| Publisher | [Stanford University] |
| Copyright date | 2022; ©2022 |
| Publication date | 2022; 2022 |
| Issuance | monographic |
| Language | English |
Creators/Contributors
| Author | Malloy, Giovanni Sean Paul |
|---|---|
| Degree supervisor | Brandeau, Margaret L |
| Thesis advisor | Brandeau, Margaret L |
| Thesis advisor | Andrews, Jason |
| Thesis advisor | Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D |
| Degree committee member | Andrews, Jason |
| Degree committee member | Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D |
| Associated with | Stanford University, Department of Management Science and Engineering |
Subjects
| Genre | Theses |
|---|---|
| Genre | Text |
Bibliographic information
| Statement of responsibility | Giovanni S. P. Malloy. |
|---|---|
| Note | Submitted to the Department of Management Science and Engineering. |
| Thesis | Thesis Ph.D. Stanford University 2022. |
| Location | https://purl.stanford.edu/pm446kr9870 |
Access conditions
- Copyright
- © 2022 by Giovanni Sean Paul Malloy
- License
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial No Derivatives 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC-ND).
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