More with Less: Prioritizing U.S. Navy global presence with reductions in defense spending

After a decade of war, America’s defense budget is almost certain to see reductions over the next several years. The full impact of austerity on the Navy as the principle vehicle of U.S. power projection however must be approximated in the context of an evolving geopolitical landscape. Although the Navy is unrivaled in size, capability, and reach, the development of anti- access/ area denial (A2/AD) weapon systems by rising powers in two strategically critical theaters—the Persian Gulf and the Asia Pacific—represents a growing problem. Maritime power dynamics are changing: China’s naval ascendancy combined with its ambitions in the South China Sea risks sparking a naval arms race, while Iranian belligerence in the Gulf threatens the free flow of oil in an already volatile part of the world. If the Navy is to continuing advancing a strategy of global engagement, it must find a way to projecting power even in a constrained future resource environment.
How can the Navy continue to promote U.S. interests while operating on a reduced budget? Using scenario analysis under three different budget cases—status quo, sequestration, and a hypothetical compromise solution—this paper assesses the outlook for U.S. naval presence and power projection in the Persian Gulf and Asia Pacific over the remainder of the decade.

To preserve its global dominance and regional influence, the Navy must invest in developing counter A2/AD systems and continue to emphasize power projection. Rather than shrink from a forward deployed posture, the Navy must adopt a prioritized engagement strategy that allocates ships with region-specific capabilities against region-specific security concerns. By maintaining forward presence, and by focusing on its core-competency—power projection—even with fewer ships, the Navy can do more with less.