Guns, Rubles, and Oil: A Statistical Approach to Understanding Russia’s Military Modernization Programs

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Abstract/Contents

Abstract: By using oil prices as a simple economic proxy, this research attempts to assess the future of Russia’s defense modernization programs through a basic statistical regression between defense spending and oil prices. From there, it builds 5 potential oil price scenarios and examines how overall defense spending might react in each of the 5 scenarios. Additionally, the analysis is extrapolated to 2 primary defense projects — the Borei and Yasen submarines. The financial burden of both programs on the Naval defense budget is then used to assess the feasibility that Russia will be able to successfully complete either project within the scope of the next 10-year modernization plan given each of the 5 budget scenarios. The research then attempts to contextualize the statistical results within the contemporary Russian landscape. This landscape includes a background of Russia’s oil-based economy, its Soviet legacy, and its highly centralized administration. Ultimately, the goal is to assess the probability that Russia will meet its military spending objectives over the next 10 years in each of the 5 budget scenarios while using the specific examples of the two submarine projects to demonstrate how budget constraints and prioritization might take place.

Type of resource	text
Date created	2018

Subject	Russia’s defense modernization
Subject	oil
Subject	defense budget
Subject	Russia’s oil-based economy
Genre	Thesis

Location	https://purl.stanford.edu/mj387gw4101

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License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC).

Preferred Citation: Hirschkorn, Jules. (2018). Guns, Rubles, and Oil: A Statistical Approach to Understanding Russia’s Military Modernization Programs. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at: https://purl.stanford.edu/mj387gw4101

Masters Theses in Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies

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