Mosquitoes in the Anthropocene: A Multi-Decade Study at Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve

Mosquitoes play a critical role in both human and nonhuman community health in the Anthropocene. Global shifts in temperature and precipitation will affect the distribution of many mosquito species and reshape disease risks posed to human population. Simultaneously, the ecosystem services mosquitoes provide have become critically visible as global change disrupts biological communities and their food webs. Understanding mosquito populations over time is critical for developing adaptive management frameworks for present and future community health of both humans and the ecosystems in which we reside.

In this study, I use a rich dataset of mosquito abundances, biocide applications, and climate from 2002 to 2022 in and around Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve to characterize the mosquito community, understand environmental drivers, and assess the impacts of mosquito control efforts. Five species dominate the diverse mosquito community of five genera comprising at least 18 species, which are log-normally distributed. The mosquito community is nested in space, though the relative abundance of species varies between water bodies. However, the community demonstrates significant flux over time, which may suggest competition or differential responses to environmental change. Several species demonstrate significantly different responses to environmental change both within and across the 20 years represented in this study. Though long-term population trends could not be assessed, species abundance patterns correlate to key environmental and physical variables, such as the timing of peak rainfall, temperature, and photoperiod.

No clear evidence indicated biocides impacted mosquitoes, and both increases and decreases in overall abundances were observed in response to control efforts. When mosquito population data were robust enough to detect statistical effects of biocide application, these analyses showed that a few species had a minor response to the application. However, most responses are equivocal.

Mosquito population dynamics at Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve present a unique lens with which to create adaptive frameworks that promote ecological integrity while prioritizing human health. As managers plan for the future of mosquito control in an era of global change, this research demonstrates the importance of statistically grounded effective and ecological approaches to mosquito control, with careful attention to the differences in species responses.