Comparative Analysis of the Gateway Belief Model for Policy Opinion Change in Sweden and the United States

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Abstract/Contents

Abstract: The Gateway Belief Model (GBM) asserts that perceptions of consensus among experts about climate change are a gateway belief that directly impact public opinion about global warming and public support for climate policy. My research refines the model by proposing that the relationship between perceived scientific consensus (PSC) and climate attitudes might not be positive and significant throughout as the GBM implies. I introduce trust in scientists as a moderator of the relationship between PSC and climate opinion. I test the GBM and my extension utilizing data gathered from surveys of nationally representative, random samples in Sweden and the U.S. OLS regressions gauged associations between PSC and respondents' views on climate-related issues and tested whether PSC has greater impact among people with higher trust in scientists. Imposing a linearity assumption onto PSC led to positive and significant relationships between PSC and climate beliefs, supporting the GBM. However, relaxing the linearity assumption by assessing PSC categorically revealed a decreasing return to PSC. Trust in scientists failed to moderate the relationships between PSC, climate beliefs, and policy support, disputing the underlying mechanism of the GBM. Findings provide insights about the universality of scientific consensus message as a strategy to increase support for global warming action.

Author	Meyn, Isabella
Degree granting institution	Stanford University
Department	Public Policy Program
Thesis advisor	Krosnick, Jon
Thesis advisor	MacInnis, Bo

DOI	https://doi.org/10.25740/jk068xg5645
Location	https://purl.stanford.edu/jk068xg5645

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License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY).

Preferred citation: Meyn, I. (2023). Comparative Analysis of the Gateway Belief Model for Policy Opinion Change in Sweden and the United States. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at https://purl.stanford.edu/jk068xg5645. https://doi.org/10.25740/jk068xg5645.

Stanford University, Public Policy Program, Undergraduate Honors Theses and Practicum Projects

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