Spies in the Public Eye: A Comparative Community Analysis of Nuclear Sleuths and Government Intelligence Agencies
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- The advent of the internet and technological advancements in remote sensing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning have generated an explosion of open-source information. As the quantity of public data has grown, a new community of non-government open-source intelligence (NG OSINT) analysts has emerged, exploiting public information to provide insights on the most guarded of programs: the pursuit of nuclear weapons. Coined “nuclear sleuths,” the nuclear NG OSINT community democratizes secrets through analysis, redefining the divide between public knowledge and government intelligence. Despite operating in a high-stakes and influential environment, nuclear sleuths remain understudied. In recent years, news media has covered the findings of nuclear OSINT practitioners but not how or why they operate. Academic studies have compared nuclear sleuths to government intelligence agencies but have not yet offered comprehensive data about who operates in this space, what backgrounds they have, or what tools they use. This thesis seeks to fill the gap, unearthing how and why the nuclear NG OSINT community is different from U.S. government intelligence agencies. The thesis draws from a novel and thorough dataset of 66 individuals, 44 organizations, and 100 publications that systematically identifies and tracks the expertise, methods, and technologies leveraged in the nuclear sleuth community. The thesis also reviews government threat assessments, intelligence guidebooks, and declassified nuclear intelligence reports from 1966-1991. Interviews with 13 intelligence practitioners from both communities offer insights on perceptions of each group. The thesis finds that the nuclear sleuth community is diverse, collaborative, and responsive. However, nuclear NG OSINT analysts have limited intelligence training and informal peer-review processes, which create higher risks for the spread of misinformation. Conversely, government intelligence agencies maintain a highly structured and refined analytical environment, but bureaucratic processes often hinder internal innovation, technological experimentation, and interagency cooperation. The thesis offers 10 novel insights on the nuclear sleuth and government intelligence communities related to practitioners’ publication habits, technical assets, and motivations for research. Conclusively, the thesis calls for increased collaboration between the two communities and presents strategies to refine analytical methods in each group. The comparative analysis of non-government and government intelligence communities provides crucial understanding of and preparation for the future of 21st-century intelligence.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Date created | June 2, 2022 |
| Date modified | December 5, 2022 |
| Publication date | June 2, 2022; June 2, 2022 |
Creators/Contributors
| Author | Leede, Katharine |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor | Gottemoeller, Rose |
| Thesis advisor | Zegart, Amy |
| Degree granting institution | Stanford University |
| Department | Center for International Security and Cooperation |
Subjects
| Subject | Open source intelligence |
|---|---|
| Subject | Nuclear intelligence |
| Subject | Nuclear sleuths |
| Subject | Community analysis and assessment |
| Genre | Text |
| Genre | Thesis |
Bibliographic information
| Related item |
|
|---|---|
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.25740/hy722vw9067 |
| Location | https://purl.stanford.edu/hy722vw9067 |
Access conditions
- Use and reproduction
- User agrees that, where applicable, content will not be used to identify or to otherwise infringe the privacy or confidentiality rights of individuals. Content distributed via the Stanford Digital Repository may be subject to additional license and use restrictions applied by the depositor.
- License
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY).
Preferred citation
- Preferred citation
- Leede, K. (2022). Spies in the Public Eye: A Comparative Community Analysis of Nuclear Sleuths and Government Intelligence Agencies. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at https://purl.stanford.edu/hy722vw9067
Collection
Stanford University, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Interschool Honors Program in International Security Studies, Theses
View other items in this collection in SearchWorksContact information
- Contact
- kdleede@gmail.com
Also listed in
Loading usage metrics...