COVID-19 vaccine distribution strategies in low and middle income countries with implications for global allocation

On March 11, 2020, the Director-General of the World Health Organization declared the onset of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Countries around the world responded with public health policies including quarantines and mask mandates to combat a rising surge in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. As of this writing, more than 3 million deaths have been recorded, a staggering number of lives that yet does not capture the total effect of the pandemic on people around the globe. Mass vaccination is viewed as the best way to end this pandemic.

This timely and important international report provides evidence of the need for a more equitable global allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Specifically, this report draws upon public data from five case countries - Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Peru, and Romania - and develops a framework that policymakers around the world can use when pursuing various vaccine distribution strategies.

Using a mixed-method approach including qualitative interviews and a quantitative frequency-dependent dynamic compartmental model, we found that 1) LMICs face many challenges from weakened healthcare infrastructures and economic poverty; 2) the next 12 months are extremely critical to save many lives by vaccinating large percentages of the populations in LMIC; and 3) global support will be essential to implement these large-scale vaccination programs.

We were pleased to work closely with Partners in Health (PIH) as our primary client, a global health nonprofit organization with over 18,000 staff across 11 countries in four continents, and the Masinde Muliro School of Medicine in Kakamega County, Kenya. Both helped secure interviews with experts and provided relevant sources of public data.

Authors:
Hodgkinson, Luqman Mushila (PhD MS)
School of Medicine (MD) and the Public Policy Program (MPP)
luqman@stanford.edu

Kim, Yoon-Chan
Graduate School of Education (MA) and the Public Policy Program (MPP)
ykim47@stanford.edu

Memet, Sevda (MD)
Graduate School of Business (MBA) and the Public Policy Program (MPP)
sevdam@stanford.edu

Rey Malca De Habich, Maria Marta
School of Humanities & Sciences (BA) and the Public Policy Program (MPP)
mmreymdh@stanford.edu

Rodriguez Silva Santisteban, Fernando Rafael
School of Engineering (MS/PhD) and the Public Policy Program (MPP)
frodsil@stanford.edu

For media inquiries and questions regarding this publication please contact the publisher:
Stanford University
Public Policy Program
Stanford, CA 94305 United States
+1 (650) 725-0109
publicpolicy@stanford.edu