Empirical constraints on the rate and effectiveness of private adaptation to climate change in agriculture
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- Changes in climate as a result of greenhouse gas emissions are now well documented but the effects of these changes on people and the social, economic, and natural systems they value are much more difficult to determine. Answering this question is challenging because people are able to adapt so as to preserve the things they care about in the face of a changing climate. These adaptations are an integral determinant of climate change impacts and understanding them is essential for the design of efficient mitigation and adaptation policy. Despite this importance, there is fairly little empirical evidence as to the rate and effectiveness of private adaptation to climate change. This dissertation presents new methods for quantifying climate change impacts and adaptation, with a focus on the agricultural sector. The first chapter quantifies the potential for private adaptation in European agriculture by jointly estimating both the short-run (excluding adaptation) and long-run (including adaption) response of yields and profits to changes in temperature and rainfall. The difference in impacts estimated using these two response curves can be interpreted as the private adaptation potential. I find this potential varies substantially between crops, but is low for wheat and barley, which show large residual effects of warming even with adaptation. The second chapter uses these response curves to quantify the influence of long-term climate trends on European crop yields. I show that climate trends have affected European crop yields but can not account for the stagnation of cereal yields observed since the mid-1990s. I also present a statistical test for constraining the rate of adaptation but show it will have low power in most settings. Finally, chapter three presents a Bayesian model of how farmers might learn about climate change given observations of weather. I test this model with an experiment using an online game simulating the adaptation decision. I show that the process of learning about climate change involves exposure to extreme events and quantify the magnitude of this exposure.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Form | electronic; electronic resource; remote |
| Extent | 1 online resource. |
| Publication date | 2015 |
| Issuance | monographic |
| Language | English |
Creators/Contributors
| Associated with | Moore, Frances Claire |
|---|---|
| Associated with | Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (Stanford University) |
| Primary advisor | Goulder, Lawrence H. (Lawrence Herbert) |
| Primary advisor | Lobell, David |
| Thesis advisor | Goulder, Lawrence H. (Lawrence Herbert) |
| Thesis advisor | Lobell, David |
| Thesis advisor | Field, Christopher B |
| Thesis advisor | Naylor, Rosamond |
| Advisor | Field, Christopher B |
| Advisor | Naylor, Rosamond |
Subjects
| Genre | Theses |
|---|
Bibliographic information
| Statement of responsibility | Frances Claire Moore. |
|---|---|
| Note | Submitted to the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources. |
| Thesis | Thesis (Ph.D.)--Stanford University, 2015. |
| Location | electronic resource |
Access conditions
- Copyright
- © 2015 by Frances Claire Moore
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