A democracy at what cost? The rise of drug cartels in Mexico's democratic transition

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Abstract/Contents

Abstract
Over the last three decades, Mexico has undergone two radical changes. With the dawn of a new millennia, Vicente Fox of the opposition National Action Party (PAN) was elected as the nation’s chief executive. Through his victory, Mexico transitioned from seventy years of single party rule under the Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI) to a democratic system that persists to this day. At the same time, however, the smuggling of narcotics across the country’s northern border fueled the rise of violent drug cartels that threaten political stability. In this thesis, I seek to examine the forces of these seemingly unrelated events in four different ways. First, I provide a survey of existing literature pertaining to the topic. Second, I develop a game theory framework that explains how drug cartels evolved from small bandits to transnational operations capable of challenging the state. Third, using a multivariable regression, I delve into the effects of Mexico’s democratic transition on the criminal world, advancing a new approach to measure the presence of drug cartels. Finally, I invert the relationship to determine the impact of drug cartels on democracy—namely, the influence of drug cartels on electoral patterns. I find that Mexico’s transition had a significant impact on criminal activity as measured by drugs seized by the state. Furthermore, I show that drug cartels tacitly influence electoral results across all parties. In the end, this thesis shows the growing relationship between drug cartels and the state, suggesting these two are closely interconnected despite of common misconceptions. 

Description

Type of resource text
Date created May 13, 2022
Date modified December 5, 2022
Publication date May 23, 2022; May 13, 2022

Creators/Contributors

Author Sabau, José
Thesis advisor Díaz Cayerso, Alberto
Thesis advisor Magaloni, Beatriz

Subjects

Subject Mexico
Subject Drug traffic
Subject Democracy
Genre Text
Genre Thesis

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY).

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Preferred citation
Sabau, J. (2022). A democracy at what cost? The rise of drug cartels in Mexico's democratic transition. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at https://purl.stanford.edu/hd070xm7639

Collection

Stanford University, Fisher Family Honors Program in Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. (CDDRL)

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