Essays on interstate crises and audiences : a text analysis approach to US foreign relations

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Policymakers conduct foreign policy in the presence of domestic and international audiences―especially in the midst of interstate crises that may precipitate armed conflict (e.g., Fearon 1994, 1997; Schultz 1998, 2001; Smith 1998; Tomz 2007). This dissertation project aims to study the role of the audience in interstate crises by applying text analysis and machine learning techniques to vast bodies of newly digitized documents from the United States government. Quantitative time-series data generated in this project allowed for a substantially improved understanding of mechanisms explaining interstate behavior in the presence of domestic and international audiences. This dissertation project consists of three independent essays: 1) policymakers' credibility concerns and escalatory behavior in the Berlin Crisis; 2) the effectiveness of public and private diplomatic signals after Khrushchev's ultimatum in 1958; and 3) the determinants of de-escalation policy in the Vietnam War. These quantitative historical studies contribute to micro-foundational understandings of U.S. policymakers' perceptions and interstate behavior in crises and the actual influence domestic and international audiences have on foreign policy.


Type of resource text
Form electronic; electronic resource; remote
Extent 1 online resource.
Publication date 2016
Issuance monographic
Language English


Associated with Katagiri, Azusa
Associated with Stanford University, Department of Political Science.
Primary advisor Schultz, Kenneth A
Thesis advisor Schultz, Kenneth A
Thesis advisor Fearon, James D
Thesis advisor Grimmer, Justin
Thesis advisor Sagan, Scott Douglas
Advisor Fearon, James D
Advisor Grimmer, Justin
Advisor Sagan, Scott Douglas


Genre Theses

Bibliographic information

Statement of responsibility Azusa Katagiri.
Note Submitted to the Department of Political Science.
Thesis Thesis (Ph.D.)--Stanford University, 2016.
Location electronic resource

Access conditions

© 2016 by Azusa Katagiri
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC).

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