Modeling the future disaster risk of cities to envision paths towards their future resilience
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- Key to making informed policy decisions to promote resilient and sustainable future cities is the ability to predict their risk as it relates to dynamic changes in our urban environments, reflecting increases in population, specific urban growth patterns and evolving vulnerability. Yet current seismic risk assessment practice characterizes the components of risk (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) in a static state. In this thesis, a framework for modeling urban risk is described, accounting for the spatial and temporal variations in exposure and vulnerability in order to develop trajectories of future risk. The framework makes use of an integrated cellular automata and time-inhomogeneous Markov chain simulation to model urban expansion (new buildings) as well as urban densification (through incremental building expansion). Novel methods for modeling the fragility of buildings will also be presented. Based on several case studies, the results show a significant growth in urban seismic risk over time, which increases much faster still than population. The results underline the importance of time-dependent risk models that can forecast future risk, so that proactive policy can be implemented to ensure a more resilient urban future.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Form | electronic; electronic resource; remote |
| Extent | 1 online resource. |
| Publication date | 2015 |
| Issuance | monographic |
| Language | English |
Creators/Contributors
| Associated with | Lallemant, David |
|---|---|
| Associated with | Stanford University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. |
| Primary advisor | Kiremidjian, Anne S. (Anne Setian) |
| Thesis advisor | Kiremidjian, Anne S. (Anne Setian) |
| Thesis advisor | Baker, Jack W |
| Thesis advisor | Deierlein, Gregory G. (Gregory Gerard), 1959- |
| Advisor | Baker, Jack W |
| Advisor | Deierlein, Gregory G. (Gregory Gerard), 1959- |
Subjects
| Genre | Theses |
|---|
Bibliographic information
| Statement of responsibility | David Lallemant. |
|---|---|
| Note | Submitted to the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. |
| Thesis | Thesis (Ph.D.)--Stanford University, 2015. |
| Location | electronic resource |
Access conditions
- Copyright
- © 2015 by David Charles, Bonaventure Lallemant
- License
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC).
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