Direct & indirect effects of extreme weather in a warming world
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- Extreme weather seems to be becoming more common and more extreme. A new literature on production networks shows that direct effects from extreme weather spread over supply chains and lead to indirect effects at distant companies. However, existing papers have not driven home their relevance for climate damage estimates. We examine the direct and indirect effects of extreme heat and extreme precipitation on public companies in the U.S. We use 20 years of quarterly financial data and more than 600,000 firm location records to econometrically estimate the direct effect of extreme weather at a company's establishments. We next estimate the indirect effect of extreme weather at a company's suppliers' establishments. We use data from the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6, to project changes in the incidence of extreme heat and extreme precipitation at company establishments over the next twenty years. We find that the projected indirect effects are roughly half the size of the projected direct effects. We then estimate the direct effects for different subgroups, and we compare the effects of extremes with the effects of warmer or wetter weather than average. We find substantial heterogeneity in how different types of firms are affected by extreme weather. We close by reviewing climate modeling for near-term predictions as the climate changes from its historical norms. We use the climate projections data from our firm analysis to review the accuracy and uncertainty of these models, with the goal of helping provide an operational guide to individuals who will be using these climate data for adaptation and planning.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Form | electronic resource; remote; computer; online resource |
| Extent | 1 online resource. |
| Place | California |
| Place | [Stanford, California] |
| Publisher | [Stanford University] |
| Copyright date | 2023; ©2023 |
| Publication date | 2023; 2023 |
| Issuance | monographic |
| Language | English |
Creators/Contributors
| Author | Reed, Brian Andrew |
|---|---|
| Degree supervisor | Weyant, John P. (John Peter) |
| Thesis advisor | Weyant, John P. (John Peter) |
| Thesis advisor | Gillingham, Kenneth |
| Thesis advisor | Sweeney, James L |
| Degree committee member | Gillingham, Kenneth |
| Degree committee member | Sweeney, James L |
| Associated with | Stanford University, School of Engineering |
| Associated with | Stanford University, Department of Management Science and Engineering |
Subjects
| Genre | Theses |
|---|---|
| Genre | Text |
Bibliographic information
| Statement of responsibility | Brian Reed. |
|---|---|
| Note | Submitted to the Department of Management Science and Engineering. |
| Thesis | Thesis Ph.D. Stanford University 2023. |
| Location | https://purl.stanford.edu/fq212kj2245 |
Access conditions
- Copyright
- © 2023 by Brian Andrew Reed
- License
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC).
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