Error Modeling for Coarse Scale Simulation Using Statistical Techniques
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- Forecasts of production with associated uncertainty must be based on stochastic reservoir models coupled with a fluid flow simulator. Predicting uncertainty generally requires running simulations on multiple reservoir models. The computational cost of performing these simulations often prohibits uncertainty determination based directly on fine scale reservoir models. To accelerate this process fine scale geological models are upscaled to a lower resolution. Fluid flow simulation studies are then carried out using these coarser models. Due to this coarsening step, the predictions and associated uncertainties using the coarse models differ from that using the fine models. In this work, an error modeling procedure originally developed by Omre and Lodoen (2004) and Lodoen et al. (2004) is enhanced and applied to three-phase flow problems. The technique requires the simulation of a few fine scale models which are then used for a linear regression relating fine and coarse model response. Because the fine scale simulations are computationally expensive, the calibration set must be chosen carefully. In this work various selection strategies are explored and evaluated. Issues related to low correlation between fine and coarse scale models are also investigated and a new technique of time correlation modeling is introduced. The overall methodology is shown to provide much more accurate predictions for mean and confidence interval than uncorrected coarse models for the three-phase systems studied.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Date created | June 2006 |
Creators/Contributors
| Author | Dixit, Avesh |
|---|---|
| Primary advisor | Durlofsky, Louis J. |
| Degree granting institution | Stanford University, Department of Petroleum Engineering |
Subjects
| Subject | School of Earth Energy & Environmental Sciences |
|---|---|
| Genre | Thesis |
Bibliographic information
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Preferred citation
- Preferred Citation
- Dixit, Avesh. (2006). Error Modeling for Coarse Scale Simulation Using Statistical Techniques. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at: https://purl.stanford.edu/ff945vf5421
Collection
Master's Theses, Doerr School of Sustainability
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