Methodologies for Evaluating the Socio-Economic Consequences of Large Earthquakes - Year 3 (Volumes 1, 2, & 3)

The need for efficient and reliable estimation of the socio-economic impact of large earthquakes has been amply demonstrated with recent earthquake events in the United States (US) and Japan. Recent developments in computing technologies, including geographic information systems (GIS), database management systems (DBMS), and knowledge-based expert systems (KBES) have made it possible to develop innovative methods for regional earthquake damage and loss estimation. Socio-economic impact analyses allow for the identification of high risk facilities, i.e., buildings or lifeline components that provide essential services to a region or where the potential loss of life is unacceptably high. Only two previous studies (ATC-13, 1985; NffiS, 1995) provide comprehensive methods for regional damage and loss estimation, although neither extends the analysis to the evaluation and identification of high risk facilities

The objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive regional damage and loss estimation methodology that can be used for evaluating the socio-economic impact of large earthquakes and for identifying high risk facilities utilizing advanced computational tools. In order to achieve this objective a unique team of researchers was assembled by the California Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering (CUREe) that brings in expertise in earthquake hazard and risk evaluation, geological and geotechnical modeling and socio-economic consequence analysis. The CUREe team was composed of researchers from Stanford University who provided the expertise in hazard and risk assessment, University of California at Los Angeles who provided expertise on geological and geotechnical modeling and University of California at Berkeley who developed as and implemented the socio-economic components of the project. A team of researchers with similar expertise was also brought together by Kajima to address the same issues as they apply to Japan. The two teams worked closely over a period of three years. This report summarizes the methodology and the results of its applications.