AK47s, Tanks, and F16s: Understanding Shifts in Pakistan's Conventional Military Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era

The United States has navigated a turbulent and complex relationship with Pakistan since its inception in 1947 in an attempt to achieve security and stability in South Asia. The Pakistan Army is a primary actor in determining geopolitical relations in the region and its conventional military strategy is a strong indicator of the army’s strategic calculus. Despite a renaissance of interest in understanding the Pakistan Army, there are no existing empirical analysis on the strategic calculus of the Pakistan Army. This thesis analyzes when, how and why the Pakistan Army has shifted its conventional military strategy in the post-Cold war era.
A shift in an army’s conventional military strategy indicates a major change in its perceived existing threats and in the capabilities of the army to address a shifting threat landscape. What accounts for the Pakistan Army’s strategy shifts since 1989? An investigation of the Pakistan Army’s capabilities, doctrines, rhetoric and force distribution discovers that Pakistan shifted its conventional military strategy four times since 1989: a ‘post-Cold war strategy’ from 1989-1994, a ‘defense minimal strategy’ from 1994-2001, a ‘two-front commitment strategy’ from 2001-2010, and a ‘three-front commitment strategy’ from 2010-2019.
Few institutions face such extreme pressures from a variety of different factors. Based on existing literature and interviews, this investigation finds that the Pakistan Army must balance external forces, internal forces, bureaucratic pressures and its nuclear strategy when forming and evolving its conventional military strategy. Through an analysis of the conditions surrounding strategic shifts and examining each individual pressure, this thesis presents the case that external forces, specifically those emanating from India and the U.S. and bureaucratic politics, primarily in leadership changes, have impacted shifts in Pakistan’s conventional military strategy substantially. A proposed policy to address these new findings centers on a carefully calibrated US South Asia policy comprising the management of Pakistan-India relations and balanced incentives and coercive tools.