A Characterization of Productivity, Recovery, and Future Oil Production Potential of the Bakken Formation of North Dakota
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- Because the Bakken shale and similar formations in North Dakota are a new, but poorly characterized resource, the oil production potential of North Dakota is highly uncertain. However, the size and the potential of the resource make accurate characterization and forecasts of production especially important. We employ a least squares curve fitting method on 5,773 wells in the Bakken. We fit each well with both the Hyperbolic and Stretched Exponential decline models, and we have characterized individual well productivity by vintage and location. Additionally, a scenario analysis was constructed and future production was simulated by varying individual well productivity, well spacing, and drilling rate. The primary results of this study are as follows: Of the wells drilled to date, the average Bakken type well is expected to produce 270 kbbl using the Hyperbolic decline model and 231 kbbl using the Stretched Exponential decline model over a 15 year life. The median Bakken type well is expected to produce 221 kbbl using the Hyperbolic decline model and 181 kbbl using the Stretched Exponential decline model over a 15 year life. In the forecasted base case, North Dakota will be producing 1 mmbbl/day for the next 23 years, until about 2036. This period of high production can be shortened by faster-than-expected decline, or extended by advances in technology that outpace decline. Our base case estimate is that Bakken production will peak at 1.7 mmbbl/day in late 2026. A statistical analysis shows that either decline model is equally suitable to model Bakken wells. Statistical analyses are also performed on the well production dataset and estimated ultimate recoveries, and are included in this report.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Date created | August 2014 |
Creators/Contributors
| Author | McNally, Michael Scott |
|---|---|
| Primary advisor | Brandt, Adam |
| Degree granting institution | Stanford University, Department of Energy Resources Engineering |
Subjects
| Subject | School of Earth Energy & Environmental Sciences |
|---|---|
| Genre | Thesis |
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Preferred citation
- Preferred Citation
- McNally, Michael Scott. (2014). A Characterization of Productivity, Recovery, and Future Oil Production Potential of the Bakken Formation of North Dakota. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at: https://purl.stanford.edu/dd770dn3247
Collection
Master's Theses, Doerr School of Sustainability
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- brannerlibrary@stanford.edu
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