Applying Sensitivity Analysis of Basin Modeling Parameters Based On Fluid Accumulations

Petroleum exploration validates conceptual geologic models. The validation is partly successful. Historically, the industry has been constructing numerical models to forecast its exploratory success. While basin and petroleum system numerical modeling depend on many uncertain parameters, becomes important quantifying the uncertainties included in basin modeling forecasts.
The focus of this dissertation is the distance-based global sensitivity analysis of basin modeling input parameters. The aim is to search the most influent parameters in order to operationally constrain the uncertainty of the forecast.
The methodology is demonstrated with four constructions representing the geology of Campos Basin, a typical oil-bearing passive margin basin. First, with a simple layer-cake model containing just the essential layers for a petroleum system. Second, an Earth model with a characteristically complex structural framework, including a salt layer and three faults. Then, maps of saturation are used to investigate vertical migration within the Earth model. Finally, a perturbation of the structural framework is considered to represent structural uncertainty.