Japan’s Aging Population: How Do Stock Market Fluctuations Influence Expected Retirement Age

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As Japan’s population continues to age, the national pension plans are starved of new entrants into the labor market due to low fertility rates and a historically strict immigration policies. This problem is exacerbated by mandatory retirement laws that remove workers from their positions of employment when they could be providing value-additive labor. In this paper, I use panel data from the Japan Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR) in 10 municipalities to understand how the Nikkei 225 performance impacts expected age of retirement. Controlling for macroeconomic and descriptive variables, I find evidence of a negative relationship between Nikkei performance and expected age of retirement, where a 10 percent year-over-year increase in the Nikkei 225 results in an approximate 2.5 month decrease in expected age of retirement. I do not find evidence that the estimates differ when splitting the population by age, gender, stock ownership, occupational physical intensity, or educational attainment. These results are similar in magnitude and sign to that of past studies examining the relationship between stock market performance and retirement expectations


Type of resource text
Date created May 14, 2020
Date modified December 5, 2022
Publication date February 25, 2022


Author Yaegashi, Kenta Robert
Degree granting institution Stanford University, Department of Economics
Thesis advisor Goda, Gopi Shah


Subject Stanford Department of Economics
Subject Retirement
Subject Stock Market
Subject Japan
Subject Economics of Aging
Subject Stanford Department of Economics
Genre Text
Genre Thesis

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Yaegashi, Kenta Robert. (2020). Japan’s Aging Population: How Do Stock Market Fluctuations Influence Expected Retirement Age?. Stanford Digital Repository. Available at: https://purl.stanford.edu/cy480rn4174


Stanford University, Department of Economics, Honors Theses

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