A Stochastic Automata Network for Earthquake Simulation and Hazard Estimation

This research develops a model for simulation of earthquakes on seismic faults with available earthquake catalog data. The model allows estimation of the seismic hazard at a site of interest and assessment of the potential damage and loss distributions in a region.

Estimation of the seismic hazard was addressed by many researchers and numerous earthquake models were developed. Currently, there are two approaches for studying the earthquakes: mechanistic and stochastic. In the mechanistic approach, seismic processes, such as changes in stress or slip on faults, are studied in great detail In the stochastic approach, the earthquake occurrences are simulated as realizations of a certain stochastic process. The stochastic earthquake models adequately represent the distribution of event sizes and frequency and, hence, are widely used in the estimation of hazard. However, the incorporation of mechanistic approach into a stochastic model not only enables to estimate the hazard but also provides a better understanding of seismic processes underlying earthquakes. In this dissertation, a stochastic earthquake occurrence model is developed that uses the results from dislocation theory for the estimation of slip released in earthquakes.