Probabilistic estimates and theoretical controls of earthquake size : applications to Southern California and induced seismicity
Abstract/Contents
- Abstract
- Earthquakes are complex, stochastic processes. They occur throughout the world, and even though we know so much about them, more often than not we learn something new each time a large event occurs. In California, where much time and money has been spent on monitoring, measuring, and forecasting seismicity, there is little evidence to suggest when the next San Andreas-rupturing earthquake will occur, or exactly how big it will get. However, earthquakes do obey the laws of physics. Some of these laws, friction in particular, are stochastic in their very nature; it is imperative to couple physics-based understanding with quantitative stochastic modeling to obtain a complete description of how earthquakes work. To do this, I look at two problems. The first problem is to develop a method to quantify uncertainty in the moment deficit rate (MDR) for regional-scale fault systems. There are three sources of uncertainty: with the data itself, in how well our models of the crust reflect its actual properties, and in the sensitivity of the data to the fault at depth. Prior to this work, no rigorous methods have existed to measure how uncertain any particular MDR estimate is. I show how a method termed the Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator (COBE) rigorously quantifies uncertainty in the MDR related to the data and resolution of a given model, and that the current MDR in southern California is larger than expected given the historic moment release. The second problem I address is what controls the size of earthquakes in the context of induced seismicity. I consider how the restriction of seismicity to the pressurized zone would alter the frequency-magnitude statistics of induced events, and whether or not such changes have been or could be observed in real data. The last chapter uses fully dynamic rupture simulations on 2-D rough faults to characterize maximum earthquake size with and without pressure perturbations. The results indicate that earthquake hazard is governed more by the background stress conditions and less by injection-related parameters.
Description
| Type of resource | text |
|---|---|
| Form | electronic resource; remote; computer; online resource |
| Extent | 1 online resource. |
| Place | California |
| Place | [Stanford, California] |
| Publisher | [Stanford University] |
| Copyright date | 2018; ©2018 |
| Publication date | 2018; 2018 |
| Issuance | monographic |
| Language | English |
Creators/Contributors
| Author | Maurer, Jeremy |
|---|---|
| Degree supervisor | Segall, Paul, 1954- |
| Thesis advisor | Segall, Paul, 1954- |
| Thesis advisor | Dunham, Eric |
| Thesis advisor | Ellsworth, William L |
| Degree committee member | Dunham, Eric |
| Degree committee member | Ellsworth, William L |
| Associated with | Stanford University, Department of Geophysics. |
Subjects
| Genre | Theses |
|---|---|
| Genre | Text |
Bibliographic information
| Statement of responsibility | Jeremy Maurer. |
|---|---|
| Note | Submitted to the Department of Geophysics. |
| Thesis | Thesis Ph.D. Stanford University 2018. |
| Location | electronic resource |
Access conditions
- Copyright
- © 2018 by Jeremy Lee Maurer
- License
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC).
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