Ballots & Bullets: Understanding the Conditions that Facilitated Hybrid Actor Participation in Elections in Iraq and Lebanon

Hezbollah’s transition to parliamentary politics spurned the term “Hezbollah model,” but it is far from the only hybrid actor to hold seats in a national government. What are the conditions that facilitate hybrid actor participation in national elections? This thesis takes a qualitative approach to understand the interplay of these conditions for Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Sadrist movement in Iraq. The thesis makes a probabilistic argument about the presence and significance of four conditions: government tolerance, a supportive constituency, power vacuum, and foreign involvement.

Hybrid actor electoral participation has important implications for policymakers who are interested in preventing these actors from integrating with state governments, and in slowing the spread of Iranian influence in the Middle East, as Iran has had the most success in cultivating mutually beneficial relationships with hybrid actors in the region. Specifically, understanding the conditions that precipitate participation in elections opens the door to preventive measures in other countries in which hybrid actors flourish but have yet to enter into politics.